-5.7pts/game vs expected
15.8 PPG on 21.5 expected (xFP)
Brissett is averaging 15.8 half-PPR points a game on 21.5 expected, 5.7 short per game.
Buy low
Scoring under what their opportunity usually produces. The volume is there; the points should follow.
-5.0pts/game vs expected
3.3 PPG on 8.3 expected (xFP)
- 1.7 TDs below expected
Sutton is averaging 3.3 half-PPR points a game on 8.3 expected, 5.0 short per game, with 1.7 fewer touchdowns than his touches usually produce.
-4.8pts/game vs expected
11.1 PPG on 15.9 expected (xFP)
- 2.2 TDs below expected
- 29% target share
- 92% of snaps
Wilson is averaging 11.1 half-PPR points a game on 15.9 expected, 4.8 short per game, with 2.2 fewer touchdowns than his touches usually produce.
-4.4pts/game vs expected
3.6 PPG on 8.0 expected (xFP)
- 2.1 TDs below expected
- 86% of snaps
- no 20+ yard catches yet
Loveland is averaging 3.6 half-PPR points a game on 8.0 expected, 4.4 short per game, with 2.1 fewer touchdowns than his touches usually produce.
-4.3pts/game vs expected
16.1 PPG on 20.4 expected (xFP)
- 2.1 TDs below expected
- 66% of team carries
Jeanty is averaging 16.1 half-PPR points a game on 20.4 expected, 4.3 short per game, with 2.1 fewer touchdowns than his touches usually produce.
-3.4pts/game vs expected
8.6 PPG on 12.1 expected (xFP)
- 1.8 TDs below expected
- 60% of team carries
Pollard is averaging 8.6 half-PPR points a game on 12.1 expected, 3.4 short per game, with 1.8 fewer touchdowns than his touches usually produce.
-3.0pts/game vs expected
5.4 PPG on 8.4 expected (xFP)
- 24% target share
Concepcion is averaging 5.4 half-PPR points a game on 8.4 expected, 3.0 short per game.
-2.9pts/game vs expected
5.8 PPG on 8.6 expected (xFP)
- 1.4 TDs below expected
- 20% target share
Shakir is averaging 5.8 half-PPR points a game on 8.6 expected, 2.9 short per game, with 1.4 fewer touchdowns than his touches usually produce.
-2.9pts/game vs expected
5.8 PPG on 8.6 expected (xFP)
Hutchinson is averaging 5.8 half-PPR points a game on 8.6 expected, 2.9 short per game.
-2.8pts/game vs expected
7.9 PPG on 10.6 expected (xFP)
- 1.7 TDs below expected
- 20% target share
- 83% of snaps
Pickens is averaging 7.9 half-PPR points a game on 10.6 expected, 2.8 short per game, with 1.7 fewer touchdowns than his touches usually produce.
-2.7pts/game vs expected
16.9 PPG on 19.6 expected (xFP)
Stafford is averaging 16.9 half-PPR points a game on 19.6 expected, 2.7 short per game.
-2.6pts/game vs expected
13.2 PPG on 15.8 expected (xFP)
- 1.1 TDs below expected
- 33% target share
- 89% of snaps
McBride is averaging 13.2 half-PPR points a game on 15.8 expected, 2.6 short per game, with 1.1 fewer touchdowns than his touches usually produce.
-2.5pts/game vs expected
14.6 PPG on 17.1 expected (xFP)
- 2.0 TDs below expected
Swift is averaging 14.6 half-PPR points a game on 17.1 expected, 2.5 short per game, with 2.0 fewer touchdowns than his touches usually produce.
-2.4pts/game vs expected
10.2 PPG on 12.6 expected (xFP)
- 1.0 TDs below expected
- 58% of team carries
Judkins is averaging 10.2 half-PPR points a game on 12.6 expected, 2.4 short per game, with 1.0 fewer touchdowns than his touches usually produce.
-2.3pts/game vs expected
22.1 PPG on 24.4 expected (xFP)
Shough is averaging 22.1 half-PPR points a game on 24.4 expected, 2.3 short per game.
-2.3pts/game vs expected
8.8 PPG on 11.1 expected (xFP)
- 23% target share
- 96% of snaps
Metcalf is averaging 8.8 half-PPR points a game on 11.1 expected, 2.3 short per game.
-2.2pts/game vs expected
7.2 PPG on 9.4 expected (xFP)
- 1.2 TDs below expected
- 22% target share
Downs is averaging 7.2 half-PPR points a game on 9.4 expected, 2.2 short per game, with 1.2 fewer touchdowns than his touches usually produce.
-2.1pts/game vs expected
16.5 PPG on 18.6 expected (xFP)
- 1.0 TDs below expected
McCaffrey is averaging 16.5 half-PPR points a game on 18.6 expected, 2.1 short per game, with 1.0 fewer touchdowns than his touches usually produce.
-2.0pts/game vs expected
11.9 PPG on 13.9 expected (xFP)
- 70% of team carries
Brown is averaging 11.9 half-PPR points a game on 13.9 expected, 2.0 short per game.
No buy-low targets at this position this week.
Sell high
Scoring well above their opportunity. Efficiency and touchdowns like this tend to cool off.
+5.5pts/game vs expected
25.4 PPG on 19.8 expected (xFP)
Purdy is averaging 25.4 half-PPR points a game on only 19.8 expected, 5.5 over per game.
+5.2pts/game vs expected
18.5 PPG on 13.3 expected (xFP)
- 2.2 TDs above expected
- 7% target share
Hubbard is averaging 18.5 half-PPR points a game on only 13.3 expected, 5.2 over per game, helped by 2.2 more touchdowns than expected.
+4.6pts/game vs expected
11.8 PPG on 7.2 expected (xFP)
- 2.9 TDs above expected
- just 36% of snaps
- 3% target share
Robinson is averaging 11.8 half-PPR points a game on only 7.2 expected, 4.6 over per game, helped by 2.9 more touchdowns than expected.
+4.5pts/game vs expected
14.1 PPG on 9.6 expected (xFP)
- 2.0 TDs above expected
Kittle is averaging 14.1 half-PPR points a game on only 9.6 expected, 4.5 over per game, helped by 2.0 more touchdowns than expected.
+4.4pts/game vs expected
12.7 PPG on 8.3 expected (xFP)
- just 61% of snaps
Samuel is averaging 12.7 half-PPR points a game on only 8.3 expected, 4.4 over per game.
+4.0pts/game vs expected
12.2 PPG on 8.2 expected (xFP)
Boston is averaging 12.2 half-PPR points a game on only 8.2 expected, 4.0 over per game.
+4.0pts/game vs expected
11.2 PPG on 7.1 expected (xFP)
- 1.4 TDs above expected
Kelce is averaging 11.2 half-PPR points a game on only 7.1 expected, 4.0 over per game, helped by 1.4 more touchdowns than expected.
+3.7pts/game vs expected
19.8 PPG on 16.1 expected (xFP)
- 1.0 TDs above expected
- 15% target share
Williams is averaging 19.8 half-PPR points a game on only 16.1 expected, 3.7 over per game, helped by 1.0 more touchdowns than expected.
+3.3pts/game vs expected
11.9 PPG on 8.5 expected (xFP)
London is averaging 11.9 half-PPR points a game on only 8.5 expected, 3.3 over per game.
+3.2pts/game vs expected
10.5 PPG on 7.3 expected (xFP)
- 1.5 TDs above expected
Fannin is averaging 10.5 half-PPR points a game on only 7.3 expected, 3.2 over per game, helped by 1.5 more touchdowns than expected.
+3.1pts/game vs expected
8.8 PPG on 5.7 expected (xFP)
Meyers is averaging 8.8 half-PPR points a game on only 5.7 expected, 3.1 over per game.
+2.9pts/game vs expected
9.9 PPG on 6.9 expected (xFP)
- just 59% of snaps
- 13% target share
Thornton is averaging 9.9 half-PPR points a game on only 6.9 expected, 2.9 over per game.
+2.9pts/game vs expected
6.5 PPG on 3.6 expected (xFP)
- 12% target share
Williams is averaging 6.5 half-PPR points a game on only 3.6 expected, 2.9 over per game.
+2.8pts/game vs expected
5.5 PPG on 2.7 expected (xFP)
- 1.2 TDs above expected
- just 31% of snaps
- 6% target share
Cameron is averaging 5.5 half-PPR points a game on only 2.7 expected, 2.8 over per game, helped by 1.2 more touchdowns than expected.
+2.7pts/game vs expected
7.2 PPG on 4.5 expected (xFP)
- 1.8 TDs above expected
- 7% target share
White is averaging 7.2 half-PPR points a game on only 4.5 expected, 2.7 over per game, helped by 1.8 more touchdowns than expected.
No sell-high targets at this position this week.
Hot and earning it
Well above expectation, but with elite opportunity behind it (85th percentile or better in expected points). Not sells.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba+9.2WR, SEA. 95th percentile xFP
Bijan Robinson+6.5RB, ATL. 89th percentile xFP
CeeDee Lamb+5.0WR, DAL. 99th percentile xFP
Christian Watson+4.3WR, GB. 88th percentile xFP
Josh Allen+4.0QB, BUF. 98th percentile xFP
Kenneth Walker III+3.1RB, KC. 97th percentile xFP
Touchdown luck
Touchdowns scored against the touchdowns an average player would expect from the same touches (rushing only for quarterbacks). Big gaps in either direction usually close.
Due for more touchdowns
| Player | TDs | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins RB, DEN | 0 | 2.4 | -2.4 |
| Michael Wilson WR, ARI | 1 | 3.2 | -2.2 |
| Ashton Jeanty RB, LV | 2 | 4.1 | -2.1 |
| Colston Loveland TE, CHI | 0 | 2.1 | -2.1 |
| D'Andre Swift RB, CHI | 3 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| Tony Pollard RB, TEN | 1 | 2.8 | -1.8 |
Scoring above their touchdown rate
| Player | TDs | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson RB, ATL | 4 | 1.1 | +2.9 |
| Josh Allen QB, BUF | 7 | 4.2 | +2.8 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR, SEA | 6 | 3.2 | +2.8 |
| Jonathan Taylor RB, IND | 6 | 3.4 | +2.6 |
| Chuba Hubbard RB, CAR | 5 | 2.8 | +2.2 |
| George Kittle TE, SF | 4 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
How the targets are picked
Stats are half PPR through Week 4, among fantasy-relevant players (the top 36 QBs, 72 RBs, 96 WRs and 36 TEs by points) who played in Week 4. Expected points come from the ffverse expected points model on nflverse play-by-play data; snap counts from nflverse.
What makes a buy-low target?
A player scoring at least two half-PPR points a game below his expected points (xFP), while still getting real opportunity: an above-average share of expected points at his position and, outside quarterbacks, at least half his team's snaps. The volume that produces points is there; the points have not caught up yet.
What makes a sell-high target?
A player scoring well above his expected points (2.5 or more a game) on only modest opportunity. Efficiency and touchdowns that run ahead of volume tend to come back down, so his trade value may be at its peak.
What is xFP?
Expected fantasy points: what an average player would score with the same carries and targets, given where on the field they came and how far downfield the passes went. It measures opportunity, separate from what the player did with it. Here it is scored in half PPR.
Why are some hot players listed as "not a sell"?
When a player is far above expectation but his opportunity is also elite (85th percentile or better in expected points), the production is built on a real role. Those players are listed as hot and earning it rather than as sells.
When does this update?
Every Tuesday at 8 AM Eastern from Week 4 through Week 15, once the full week of games, including Monday night, is in the data. Each week also keeps its own permanent page.