Week 4. Updated Tuesday, September 29, 2026
Buy low and sell high targets for fantasy football Week 4, based on expected fantasy points (xFP), snap share and touchdown luck through Week 3. Ashton Jeanty tops the buy-low list: 16.3 points a game on 22.1 expected, the biggest shortfall among fantasy starters. Brock Purdy leads the sell-high side at +7.6 points a game over what his opportunity usually produces. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is running even hotter, but his opportunity is elite too, so he is not a sell.
Scoring under what their opportunity usually produces. The volume is there; the points should follow.
16.3 PPG on 22.1 expected (xFP)
Jeanty is averaging 16.3 half-PPR points a game on 22.1 expected, 5.8 short per game, with 1.9 fewer touchdowns than his touches usually produce.
7.8 PPG on 13.1 expected (xFP)
McMillan is averaging 7.8 half-PPR points a game on 13.1 expected, 5.3 short per game, with 2.4 fewer touchdowns than his touches usually produce.
3.7 PPG on 8.6 expected (xFP)
Flournoy is averaging 3.7 half-PPR points a game on 8.6 expected, 4.9 short per game, with 1.3 fewer touchdowns than his touches usually produce.
7.7 PPG on 12.3 expected (xFP)
Pickens is averaging 7.7 half-PPR points a game on 12.3 expected, 4.7 short per game, with 1.5 fewer touchdowns than his touches usually produce.
16.5 PPG on 20.9 expected (xFP)
Brissett is averaging 16.5 half-PPR points a game on 20.9 expected, 4.4 short per game.
4.1 PPG on 8.5 expected (xFP)
Sutton is averaging 4.1 half-PPR points a game on 8.5 expected, 4.4 short per game, with 1.6 fewer touchdowns than his touches usually produce.
7.1 PPG on 11.2 expected (xFP)
Metcalf is averaging 7.1 half-PPR points a game on 11.2 expected, 4.1 short per game.
4.5 PPG on 8.6 expected (xFP)
Shakir is averaging 4.5 half-PPR points a game on 8.6 expected, 4.1 short per game, with 1.3 fewer touchdowns than his touches usually produce.
10.4 PPG on 14.5 expected (xFP)
Wilson is averaging 10.4 half-PPR points a game on 14.5 expected, 4.0 short per game, with 1.0 fewer touchdowns than his touches usually produce.
6.7 PPG on 10.4 expected (xFP)
Washington is averaging 6.7 half-PPR points a game on 10.4 expected, 3.7 short per game.
15.1 PPG on 18.7 expected (xFP)
Stroud is averaging 15.1 half-PPR points a game on 18.7 expected, 3.6 short per game.
7.5 PPG on 10.3 expected (xFP)
Pollard is averaging 7.5 half-PPR points a game on 10.3 expected, 2.8 short per game, with 1.3 fewer touchdowns than his touches usually produce.
8.5 PPG on 11.2 expected (xFP)
Etienne is averaging 8.5 half-PPR points a game on 11.2 expected, 2.7 short per game, with 1.3 fewer touchdowns than his touches usually produce.
10.1 PPG on 12.1 expected (xFP)
Hampton is averaging 10.1 half-PPR points a game on 12.1 expected, 2.0 short per game.
No buy-low targets at this position this week.
Scoring well above their opportunity. Efficiency and touchdowns like this tend to cool off.
27.3 PPG on 19.7 expected (xFP)
Purdy is averaging 27.3 half-PPR points a game on only 19.7 expected, 7.6 over per game.
14.0 PPG on 8.0 expected (xFP)
Kelce is averaging 14.0 half-PPR points a game on only 8.0 expected, 6.1 over per game, helped by 1.4 more touchdowns than expected.
12.7 PPG on 7.6 expected (xFP)
Boston is averaging 12.7 half-PPR points a game on only 7.6 expected, 5.1 over per game.
11.8 PPG on 7.0 expected (xFP)
Samuel is averaging 11.8 half-PPR points a game on only 7.0 expected, 4.8 over per game.
10.1 PPG on 5.6 expected (xFP)
Meyers is averaging 10.1 half-PPR points a game on only 5.6 expected, 4.5 over per game, helped by 1.2 more touchdowns than expected.
22.9 PPG on 18.7 expected (xFP)
Mahomes is averaging 22.9 half-PPR points a game on only 18.7 expected, 4.2 over per game.
12.8 PPG on 8.9 expected (xFP)
Jefferson is averaging 12.8 half-PPR points a game on only 8.9 expected, 3.9 over per game, helped by 1.0 more touchdowns than expected.
10.9 PPG on 6.9 expected (xFP)
Sadiq is averaging 10.9 half-PPR points a game on only 6.9 expected, 3.9 over per game, helped by 1.1 more touchdowns than expected.
12.3 PPG on 8.7 expected (xFP)
Raymond is averaging 12.3 half-PPR points a game on only 8.7 expected, 3.6 over per game.
9.5 PPG on 6.1 expected (xFP)
Fant is averaging 9.5 half-PPR points a game on only 6.1 expected, 3.5 over per game, helped by 2.0 more touchdowns than expected.
7.4 PPG on 4.0 expected (xFP)
White is averaging 7.4 half-PPR points a game on only 4.0 expected, 3.4 over per game, helped by 1.8 more touchdowns than expected.
11.8 PPG on 8.3 expected (xFP)
London is averaging 11.8 half-PPR points a game on only 8.3 expected, 3.4 over per game.
10.5 PPG on 7.1 expected (xFP)
Fannin is averaging 10.5 half-PPR points a game on only 7.1 expected, 3.4 over per game, helped by 1.0 more touchdowns than expected.
12.4 PPG on 9.1 expected (xFP)
Kincaid is averaging 12.4 half-PPR points a game on only 9.1 expected, 3.3 over per game.
16.2 PPG on 13.0 expected (xFP)
Hubbard is averaging 16.2 half-PPR points a game on only 13.0 expected, 3.2 over per game.
10.5 PPG on 7.4 expected (xFP)
Rice is averaging 10.5 half-PPR points a game on only 7.4 expected, 3.1 over per game.
9.4 PPG on 6.3 expected (xFP)
Waller is averaging 9.4 half-PPR points a game on only 6.3 expected, 3.1 over per game, helped by 1.1 more touchdowns than expected.
15.8 PPG on 12.9 expected (xFP)
Williams is averaging 15.8 half-PPR points a game on only 12.9 expected, 2.9 over per game.
9.8 PPG on 7.1 expected (xFP)
Monangai is averaging 9.8 half-PPR points a game on only 7.1 expected, 2.7 over per game.
6.2 PPG on 3.5 expected (xFP)
Adkins is averaging 6.2 half-PPR points a game on only 3.5 expected, 2.7 over per game, helped by 1.1 more touchdowns than expected.
No sell-high targets at this position this week.
Well above expectation, but with elite opportunity behind it (85th percentile or better in expected points). Not sells.
Touchdowns scored against the touchdowns an average player would expect from the same touches (rushing only for quarterbacks). Big gaps in either direction usually close.
| Player | TDs | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuel Wilson RB, SEA | 0 | 3.2 | -3.2 |
| J.K. Dobbins RB, DEN | 0 | 2.4 | -2.4 |
| Tetairoa McMillan WR, CAR | 0 | 2.4 | -2.4 |
| Ashton Jeanty RB, LV | 2 | 3.9 | -1.9 |
| George Holani RB, SEA | 0 | 1.8 | -1.8 |
| Courtland Sutton WR, DEN | 0 | 1.6 | -1.6 |
| Player | TDs | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR, SEA | 6 | 2.9 | +3.1 |
| Josh Allen QB, BUF | 6 | 3.7 | +2.3 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown WR, DET | 5 | 2.7 | +2.3 |
| Noah Fant TE, NO | 3 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| Stefon Diggs WR, WAS | 3 | 1.2 | +1.8 |
| Cody White WR, LV | 3 | 1.2 | +1.8 |
Stats are half PPR through Week 3, among fantasy-relevant players (the top 36 QBs, 72 RBs, 96 WRs and 36 TEs by points) who played in Week 3. Expected points come from the ffverse expected points model on nflverse play-by-play data; snap counts from nflverse.
A player scoring at least two half-PPR points a game below his expected points (xFP), while still getting real opportunity: an above-average share of expected points at his position and, outside quarterbacks, at least half his team's snaps. The volume that produces points is there; the points have not caught up yet.
A player scoring well above his expected points (2.5 or more a game) on only modest opportunity. Efficiency and touchdowns that run ahead of volume tend to come back down, so his trade value may be at its peak.
Expected fantasy points: what an average player would score with the same carries and targets, given where on the field they came and how far downfield the passes went. It measures opportunity, separate from what the player did with it. Here it is scored in half PPR.
When a player is far above expectation but his opportunity is also elite (85th percentile or better in expected points), the production is built on a real role. Those players are listed as hot and earning it rather than as sells.
Every Tuesday at 8 AM Eastern from Week 4 through Week 15, once the full week of games, including Monday night, is in the data. Each week also keeps its own permanent page.