Justin Herbert
Stat Maniac
Through Week 5 of 2026, Justin Herbert is averaging 12.1 half-PPR points per game on 16.6 xFP (34th percentile among QBs), 4.5 points per game below expectation, the kind of gap that tends to close. Herbert is posting -0.19 EPA per dropback (5th percentile) and a CPOE of -4.6 (9th). The closest statistical comp since 2012 is Trevor Lawrence's 2021 season (89% match): QB23 that year, then QB8 the next.
2026 season, through Week 5, 5 games, QB25 in total points. Percentiles against the top 36 QBs by points with 4+ games.
Closest seasons since 2012
- 89%2021 Trevor Lawrence: QB23 that season (12.3 PPG), QB8 the next year (18.3 PPG).
- 88%2016 Robert Griffin III: QB35 that season (13.9 PPG), no qualifying season the next year.
- 88%2016 Brock Osweiler: QB28 that season (12.3 PPG), QB36 the next year (12.2 PPG).
2025 season, 16 games, QB9 in total points. Percentiles against the top 36 QBs by points with 4+ games.
Closest seasons since 2012
- 87%2013 Andrew Luck: QB5 that season (18.8 PPG), QB1 the next year (23.0 PPG).
- 86%2015 Aaron Rodgers: QB7 that season (19.3 PPG), QB1 the next year (24.2 PPG).
- 86%2019 Kyler Murray: QB7 that season (18.6 PPG), QB2 the next year (24.4 PPG).
PoorAverageElite Half PPR, Weeks 1-17. Comps match percentile profiles across 2012-2025 at the position. xFP is expected points on the same touches; how it works.
Season lines
Half PPR, Weeks 1-17| Season | G | Cmp-Att | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush yds | Rush TD | Pts | PPG | Spike wks | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16 | 340-512 | 3727 | 26 | 13 | 498 | 2 | 299.9 | 18.7 | 6 | QB9 |
| 2026 | 5 | 85-143 | 937 | 5 | 7 | 142 | 0 | 60.7 | 12.1 | 0 | QB25 |
| 2026Maniacs proj | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 310.9 | 18.3 | - | - |
A spike week is a top-12 QB finish that week, the weeks that win best ball. Finish is the season rank by half-PPR points among all QBs.
Game log
Full color = top-12 week2026 season
| Wk | Opp | Cmp-Att | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush yds | Rush TD | Pts | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 17-27 | 209 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 14.3 | QB22 |
| 2 | LV | 15-27 | 192 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9.9 | QB24 |
| 3 | BUF | 20-34 | 226 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 13.7 | QB23 |
| 4 | SEA | 19-31 | 189 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 0 | 11.6 | QB27 |
| 5 | DEN | 14-24 | 121 | 1 | 1 | 54 | 0 | 11.2 | QB23 |
2025 game log (16 games)
| Wk | Opp | Cmp-Att | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush yds | Rush TD | Pts | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 25-34 | 318 | 3 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 27.9 | QB5 |
| 2 | LV | 19-27 | 242 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 18.8 | QB18 |
| 3 | DEN | 28-47 | 300 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 15.6 | QB12 |
| 4 | NYG | 23-41 | 203 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 14.5 | QB20 |
| 5 | WAS | 22-29 | 166 | 1 | 1 | 60 | 0 | 15.6 | QB20 |
| 6 | MIA | 29-38 | 264 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18.8 | QB15 |
| 7 | IND | 37-55 | 420 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 29.9 | QB2 |
| 8 | MIN | 18-25 | 227 | 3 | 1 | 62 | 0 | 26.3 | QB3 |
| 9 | TEN | 19-29 | 250 | 2 | 1 | 57 | 1 | 28.7 | QB4 |
| 10 | PIT | 20-33 | 220 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 14.7 | QB17 |
| 11 | JAX | 10-18 | 81 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 4.3 | QB31 |
| 13 | LV | 15-20 | 151 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 13.8 | QB19 |
| 14 | PHI | 12-26 | 139 | 1 | 1 | 66 | 0 | 13.2 | QB17 |
| 15 | KC | 19-29 | 210 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11.4 | QB27 |
| 16 | DAL | 23-29 | 300 | 2 | 0 | 42 | 1 | 30.2 | QB4 |
| 17 | HOU | 21-32 | 236 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 0 | 16.1 | QB15 |